A temperature-based phenology model for predicting development,survival and population growth potential of the mealybug,Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae)

The temperature-dependent population growth potential of Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley, a highly polyphagous and invasive mealybug species, was studied on sprouted potatoes under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15–40 °C). Several non-linear equations were fitted to the obtained data to model temperature-dependent population growth and species life history. The established equations for each life age/stage of the species were compiled to obtain an overall temperature-dependent phenology model. The life table parameters of P. solenopsis were estimated using stochastic simulation centred on a rate summation and cohort up-dating approach. The theoretical lower development threshold temperatures estimated using linear regressions applied to mean development rates were 11.2, 8.9, 9.8 and 12.7 °C, and the thermal constants for development were 93.7, 129.8, 97.1 and 100.0 degree days (DD) for nymph 1, nymph 2, nymph 3 and male pupa stages, respectively. The developed phenology model predicted temperatures between 25 and 35 °C as the favourable range for P. solenopsis development, survival and reproduction. P. solenopsis population attained a maximum net reproductive rate (107–108 females/female/generation) and total fecundity (216.6–226.5 individuals/female/generation) at temperatures between 25 and 30 °C. Mean length of generations decreased from 75.6 days at 15 °C to 21 days at 40 °C. The maximum finite rate of increase (1.12–1.16 females/female/day) and shortest doubling time (4.3–6.1 days) were also observed at temperatures between 25 and 35 °C. The simulation of phenology model at fluctuating temperatures indicated that P. solenopsis populations might potentially increase with a finite rate of 1.06 females/female/day with an average generation time of 58.7 days and a doubling time of 12.1 days. The obtained life table parameters were reasonably similar when compared with literature data. The present model can be simulated spatially for estimating the pest risk and undertaking agro-ecoregion specific pest management strategies.     

云南天然橡胶“走出去”与“替代种植”结合的模式——以云橡公司老挝琅南塔省南塔县梭都村替代搬迁种植务工示范项目为例

着重介绍云橡投资有限公司实施天然橡胶“走出去”与“替代种植”结合的发展模式,在此基础上研究和总结了模式实施的特点,为进一步的深化发展提供理论支持。     

Quantifying and simulating carbon and nitrogen mineralization from diverse exogenous organic matters

The potential contributions of exogenous organic matters (EOMs) to soil organic C and mineral N supply depend on their C and N mineralization, which can be assessed in laboratory incubations. Such incubations are essential to calibrate decomposition models, because not all EOMs can be tested in the field. However, EOM incubations are resource-intensive. Therefore, easily measurable EOM characteristics that can be useful to predict EOM behaviour are needed. We quantified C and N mineralization during the incubation of 663 EOMs from five groups (animal manures, composts, sewage sludges, digestates and others). This represents one of the largest and diversified set of EOM incubations. The C and N mineralization varied widely between and within EOM subgroups. We simulated C and N mineralization with a simple generic decomposition model. Three calibration methods were compared. Individual EOM calibration of the model yielded good model performances, while the use of a unique parameter set per EOM subgroup decreased the model performance, and the use of two EOM characteristics to estimate model parameters gave an intermediate model performance (average RMSE-C values of 32, 99 and 65 mg C g⁻¹ added C and average RMSE-N values of 50, 126 and 110 mg N g⁻¹ added N, respectively). Because of the EOM variability, individual EOM calibration based on incubation remains the recommended method for predicting most accurately the C and N mineralization of EOMs. However, the two alternative calibration methods are sufficient for the simulation of EOMs without incubation data to obtain reasonable model performances.     

A model ensemble approach to determine the humus building efficiency of organic amendments in incubation experiments

Organic amendments are important to sustain soil organic matter (SOM) and soil functions in agricultural soils. Information about the contribution of organic amendments to SOM can be derived from incubation experiments. In this study, data from 72 incubated organic amendments including plant residues, digestates and manure were analysed. The incubation data was compiled from three experimental setups with varying incubation times, soils and incubation temperatures, in which CO₂ release was measured continuously. The analysis of the incubation data was performed with an approach relying on conceptual parts of C-TOOL, CCB, Century, ICBM, RothC and Yasso which are all well-approved first-order carbon models that differ in structure and abstraction level. All models are an approximation of reality, whereby each model differs in understanding of the processes involved in soil carbon dynamics. To accumulate the advantages from each model a model ensemble was performed for each substrate. With the ability of each carbon model to compute the distribution of carbon into specific SOM pools a new approach for evaluating organic amendments in terms of humus building efficiency is presented that, depends on the weighted model fit of each ensemble member. Depending on the organic substrate added to the soil, the time course of CO₂ release in the incubation studies was predicted with different accuracy by the individual model concepts. Averaging the output of the individual models leads to more robust prediction of SOM dynamics. The E_HUM value is easy to interpret and the results are in accordance with the literature.     

抽水蓄能电站建设期水土流失及其次生灾害风险评价

[目的]对抽水蓄能电站建设期水土流失及其次生灾害风险进行评价,对涉及的要素特征进行筛选分析,为提高工程建设期绿色安全施工水平提供科学支持。[方法]采用层次分析法结合模糊综合评价法,从3个维度共选取了8个一级指标和34个二级指标进行分析评价。[结果]构建了抽水蓄能电站建设期水土流失及其次生灾害风险评价模型,并划分为5个风险等级,将模型应用于安徽省绩溪抽水蓄能电站的研究表明该电站在建设期水土流失风险灾害等级为3级,属一般安全等级。结合该工程建设期的实情,验证了模型的可行性。[结论]抽水蓄能电站选址在很大程度上决定着工程建设期水土流失及其次生灾害风险等级。采用该方法评价风险等级为3级及以下的工程,可在确保工程水土保持措施按照要求落实建设的基础上,增强建设期水土保持监测水平。应重点关注建设期弃渣堆置不合规及取弃土过程中的潜在土壤流失量,防微杜渐,避免水土流失及其次生灾害现象的发生。     

基于AHP-熵权TOPSIS模型的辽宁省各城市土地承载力评价

[目的]定量分析评价辽宁省各城市土地承载力状况并对其障碍因子进行诊断,为辽宁省土地利用合理开发提供建议,也为区域土地承载力评价研究提供新思路。[方法]以辽宁省14个地级市作为研究区域,基于2018年Landsat 8 OLI遥感影像,进行土地利用分类获得土地各类型用地面积并结合社会经济数据,构建了土地承载力评价指标体系,并利用AHP-熵权TOPSIS模型,对土地资源承载力进行评价。运用障碍度模型对土地承载力障碍因子进行诊断。[结果]辽宁省城市分别呈现不同的承载力状态。盘锦市、大连市以及沈阳市土地承载力相对较高,但社会子系统是制约其土地承载力的主要障碍因素。鞍山市和营口市承载力表现为相对低的状态,其经济子系统的是制约土地承载力提高的主要因素。[结论]辽宁省各城市土地承载力距离其理想状态还有着一定距离,应促进社会、经济、资源3个子系统协调发展进而提高土地承载力。     

中国边境9省(区)城镇化与乡村振兴的耦合协调与影响因素

[目的] 探讨中国边境9省（区）城镇化与乡村振兴两大战略系统的协调发展关系与影响因素,为统筹边境地区城乡发展与促进国土安全提供科学依据。[方法] 构建城镇化与乡村振兴的指标综合评价体系,采取耦合协调度模型、灰色关联度模型分析中国边境9省（区）2008—2018年两大系统的耦合协调关系及影响因素。[结果] ①2008—2018年中国边境地区城镇化指数呈波动上升态势,总体上土地城镇化高于人口城镇化。②乡村振兴整体指数由2008年的0.273上升至2018年的0.756,边境城乡统筹推进力度加大,省域乡村发展差距不断在缩小。③城镇化与乡村振兴的协调程度由中度协调向高度协调转变,按照两系统的协调程度情况将边境9省（区）划分为优化提升型、调整进步型与重点突破型。④中国边境9省（区）城镇化与乡村振兴两大系统的协调发展是各种内外部力量交织作用下的结果,其中政府决策起到关键引导作用,互联互通扮演“催化剂”角色,产业结构提供重要内生“造血”力量,经济发展与人口迁移具有外部“输血”作用。[结论] 应从建立健全城乡融合发展机制、分区分级分类制定发展战略、构建跨区域协同发展新格局和激活创新驱动内生发展动力等方面促进中国边境9省（区）城镇化与乡村振兴协调发展。     

基于MCR模型的江西省抚州市生态安全格局构建

[目的]开展城市生态安全格局构建和主要生态廊道识别研究,为城市国土空间规划中生态格局的优化提供科学参考。[方法]以江西省抚州市为研究区,选取土地利用因子,水土保持功能重要性以及生态敏感性等多种因子构建最小累积阻力模型,依据生物多样性维护功能重要性评价、全域水文分析、生态保护红线以及自然保护地识别生态源地,依托MCR模型和ArcGIS中的空间分析工具开展研究。[结果](1)抚州市整体生态环境良好,水土保持功能极重要性区所占比例为49.97%,主要集中在抚州市中部地区,以黎川县、乐安县、宜黄县和南丰县为主;抚州市生态敏感性极重要区所占比例为1.39%;(2)生态源地面积3302.34 km~2,所占比例为17.57%,以抚州市东部和西南部为主;(3)以全域的生态要素和地形地貌等为基底,抚州市呈现出“一轴、两屏、多廊、多节点”的生态安全格局。[结论]结合生态源地、生态廊道和生态节点,形成完整、系统的生态保护格局和开敞空间网络体系,维护抚州市生态安全和生物多样性。     

基于InVEST模型的祁连山国家公园碳储量时空分布研究

[目的] 研究祁连山国家公园碳储量及其时空分布,分析土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响,为提升国家公园生态价值、调整生态工程及土地管理政策提供科学依据。[方法] 结合土地利用变化动态指数和土地转移矩阵分析国家公园生态破坏和生态恢复前后的土地利用变化,然后基于InVEST模型Carbon模块,以土地利用遥感影像和碳密度为模型运行数据,计算土地利用变化导致的碳储量变化。[结果] ①祁连山国家公园1980,1990,2000,2010,2018年的碳储量分别为9.07×10⁸,9.07×10⁸,9.07×10⁸,9.16×10⁸,9.17×10⁸ t,呈现“先减后增”的趋势,累计增加9.86×10⁶ t。②碳储量空间分布与土地利用类型有一定联系。碳储量较高的地区主要集中在公园东段和中段东侧,以林地为主;碳储量较低的地区主要集中公园西段和中段西侧,以未利用地为主。③1980—2018年生态正向演变下的土地利用变化（耕地、草地和未利用地转为林地,耕地和未利用地转为草地,未利用地转为水域）是国家公园碳储量增加的主要原因。[结论] 巩固实施生态工程,着重保护草地资源、调整土地管理政策等方式能够有效促进生态系统正向演变,优化土地利用结构,有利于祁连山国家公园陆地生态碳储量的增加。     

基于RUSLE的蔗区小流域土壤侵蚀特征研究

[目的] 探讨广西壮族自治区典型赤红壤集约化蔗区小流域的土壤侵蚀状况,以及土壤侵蚀强度与不同坡度、土地利用类型的关系,为广西集约化蔗区小流域防治土壤侵蚀提供科学参考。[方法] 在GIS空间分析技术支持下,利用修正的通用土壤流失方程（revised universal soil loss equation,RUSLE）对其进行定量估算。[结果] ①那辣小流域坡度在0°~35°之间,坡耕地（甘蔗）、林地（桉树）分别占土地利用总面积的82.85%,10.99%,道路和沟渠共占6.16%。2020年流域平均土壤侵蚀速率为22.97 t/（hm²·a）,属轻度侵蚀水平,是水利部规定的南方红壤丘陵区土壤允许流失量5 t/（hm²·a）的4.6倍;②流域土壤侵蚀主要发生在5°~25°的坡度范围内,是预防和治理水土流失的重点区域;③不同土地利用类型中,平均侵蚀速率最大的是林地（桉树）,为53.59 t/（hm²·a）,分别是坡耕地（甘蔗）、道路、沟渠的2.84,2.12,27.91倍。[结论] 应用RUSLE模型通过借助软件输入相关参数和处理数据,即可估算出蔗区土壤侵蚀及不同坡度、土地利用类型的土壤侵蚀强度分布特征,应合理规划并利用管理好流域的坡耕地（甘蔗）、林地（桉树）、道路等土地利用类型,采取具有针对性的、有效的水土保持措施。